Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles
All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions
MLB · Monday, September 7, 2026 · 1:36 PM · Final: 4-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +118 | -140 |
| BetRivers | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +118 | -142 |
| ESPN BET | +121 | -136 |
| Fanatics | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +116 | -136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +122 | -132 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Guardians | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| BetRivers | +1 -137 | −1 +114 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -199 | −1.5 +163 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -196 | −1.5 +162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +160 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -195 | −1.5 +162 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -125 | 7 +105 |
| BetRivers | 7 -115 | 7 -104 |
| DraftKings | 7 -118 | 7 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 7 -120 | 7 +100 |
| FanDuel | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.0% | 56.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Markets average | 43.8% | 56.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.