Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles
All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Baltimore Orioles predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 8, 2026 · 6:37 PM · Final: 9-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | +102 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -125 |
| ESPN BET | +104 | -118 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +104 | -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +105 | -115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Guardians | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -211 | −1.5 +173 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +172 | +1.5 -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| BetRivers | 8 -113 | 8 -127 |
| DraftKings | 8 -104 | 8 -116 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -128 | 7.5 +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 8 +105 | 8 -125 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 53.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.