Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
All Houston Astros predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 1:06 PM · Final: 2-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Houston Astros | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| ESPN BET | +160 | -190 |
| Fanatics | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +160 | -190 |
| Caesars | +162 | -195 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Astros | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +115 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +102 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -131 | −1.5 +109 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -135 | −1.5 +110 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -130 | −1.5 +110 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -117 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -114 | 8.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -120 | 8.5 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Houston Astros | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.7% | 65.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Markets average | 36.5% | 63.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.