Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
MLB · Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 1:06 PM
The model's call
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Model confidence 60.7%
Books consensus 60.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Houston Astros | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +145 | -180 |
| DraftKings | +144 | -175 |
| ESPN BET | +145 | -170 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +144 | -172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +145 | -175 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Houston Astros | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.8% | 63.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 37.1% | 62.9% |
| Polymarket contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Markets average | 36.8% | 63.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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