Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions
MLB · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 2:21 PM · Final: 2-12
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +165 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +156 | -189 |
| ESPN BET | +160 | -190 |
| Fanatics | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +165 | -200 |
| Caesars | +170 | -205 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -127 | −1.5 +105 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -124 | −1.5 +103 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -134 | −1.5 +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +110 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -125 | −1.5 +105 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -104 | 8.5 -118 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -108 | 8.5 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -104 | 8.5 -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.0% | 65.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Markets average | 36.5% | 63.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.