Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 2:21 PM · Final: 3-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -132 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +150 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -195 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -183 | −1.5 +151 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +160 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -176 | −1.5 +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -185 | −1.5 +155 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +158 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 9.5 -109 | 9.5 -112 |
| DraftKings | 9.5 -112 | 9.5 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 -105 | 9.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.8% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.