Seattle Mariners at Athletics
MLB · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 9:41 PM
The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Seattle Mariners | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -175 | +144 |
| Fanatics | -165 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -180 | +152 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -175 | +145 |
| Caesars | -170 | +143 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Seattle Mariners | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 62.3% | 39.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 60.3% | 39.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
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