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Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays

All Houston Astros predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions

MLB · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 1:41 PM · Final: 4-14

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays
BetMGM +105 -130
BetRivers +118 -139
DraftKings +110 -133
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +106 -124
Hard Rock Bet +110 -130
Caesars +105 -125

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rays −1.5
priced 37.1% to cover · 8 books
Tampa Bay Rays covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 52.2% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Over 7.5 (18 scored)
Spread by book AstrosRays
BetMGM +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
BetRivers +1.5 -186 −1.5 +150
DraftKings +1.5 -192 −1.5 +158
ESPN BET +1.5 -190 −1.5 +160
Fanatics +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
FanDuel +1.5 -196 −1.5 +162
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -195 −1.5 +160
Caesars +1.5 -190 −1.5 +158
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -105 8 -115
BetRivers 7.5 -115 7.5 -106
DraftKings 8 -104 8 -116
ESPN BET 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
Fanatics 8 -105 8 -115
FanDuel 7.5 -122 7.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
Caesars 7.5 -130 7.5 +110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Houston AstrosTampa Bay Rays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.7% 54.3%
Best book price incl. vig 45.9% 55.4%
Kalshi contract price 46.0% 54.0%
Polymarket contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Markets average 45.8% 54.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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