Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Chicago Cubs predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 2:21 PM · Final: 4-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +133 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +141 | -171 |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -165 |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +136 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +148 | -175 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -155 | −1.5 +125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -167 | −1.5 +138 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -157 | −1.5 +130 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -164 | −1.5 +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +140 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +126 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -105 | 7 -115 |
| BetRivers | 7 -112 | 7 -129 |
| DraftKings | 7 -114 | 7 -106 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +120 |
| Fanatics | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -142 | 6.5 +116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -140 |
| Caesars | 7 -120 | 7 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.3% | 61.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| Markets average | 39.5% | 60.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.