Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Seattle Mariners at Athletics

All Seattle Mariners predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 4:06 PM · Final: 7-8

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 54.5%
Books consensus 54.5%
Result Athletics won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Seattle MarinersAthletics
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -137 +116
DraftKings -131 +109
ESPN BET -130 +110
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -136 +116
Hard Rock Bet -135 +110
Caesars -130 +110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Mariners −1.5
priced 43.3% to cover · 8 books
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9
priced 49.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 9.5
Over 9 (15 scored)
Spread by book MarinersAthletics
BetMGM −1.5 +120 +1.5 -145
BetRivers −1.5 +118 +1.5 -143
DraftKings −1.5 +123 +1.5 -148
ESPN BET −1.5 +125 +1.5 -150
Fanatics −1.5 +125 +1.5 -150
FanDuel −1.5 +114 +1.5 -137
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +115 +1.5 -145
Caesars −1.5 +122 +1.5 -145
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9 -118 9 -102
BetRivers 9 -118 9 -121
DraftKings 9 -105 9 -114
ESPN BET 9.5 +115 9.5 -135
Fanatics 9 -105 9 -115
FanDuel 9.5 +108 9.5 -132
Hard Rock Bet 9.5 +115 9.5 -135
Caesars 9 -105 9 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Seattle MarinersAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.5% 45.5%
Best book price incl. vig 56.5% 46.3%
Kalshi contract price 54.5% 45.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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