Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays

All Athletics predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions

MLB · Tuesday, September 15, 2026 · 6:40 PM · Final: 1-2

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 67.0%
Books consensus 67.0%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsTampa Bay Rays
BetMGM +190 -235
BetRivers +205 -250
DraftKings +189 -233
ESPN BET +190 -225
Fanatics +190 -235
FanDuel +190 -230
Hard Rock Bet +195 -230
Caesars +190 -235

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rays −1.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 8 books
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8
priced 50.9% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Under 8 (3 scored)
Spread by book AthleticsRays
BetMGM +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
BetRivers +1.5 -106 −1.5 -115
DraftKings +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
ESPN BET +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Fanatics +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
FanDuel +1.5 -118 −1.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Caesars +1.5 -113 −1.5 -107
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -115 8 -105
BetRivers 8 -124 8 -115
DraftKings 8 -114 8 -106
ESPN BET 8.5 +105 8.5 -125
Fanatics 8 -115 8 -105
FanDuel 7.5 -130 7.5 +106
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 +105 8.5 -125
Caesars 8 -111 8 -108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsTampa Bay Rays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 33.0% 67.0%
Best book price incl. vig 32.8% 69.2%
Kalshi contract price 32.5% 67.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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