Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All Washington Nationals predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 15, 2026 · 6:46 PM · Final: 3-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -220 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -225 | +180 |
| DraftKings | -218 | +178 |
| ESPN BET | -215 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -235 | +194 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -230 | +190 |
| Caesars | -220 | +180 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 -125 | +1.5 +105 |
| BetRivers | −2 -104 | +2 -120 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 -126 | +1.5 +105 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 -130 | +1.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 -125 | +1.5 +105 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 -130 | +1.5 +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 -130 | +1.5 +105 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -130 | +1.5 +110 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -122 | 8 -118 |
| DraftKings | 8 -112 | 8 -107 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 8 -115 | 8 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -128 | 7.5 +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 8 -120 | 8 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 68.3% | 34.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| Markets average | 66.9% | 33.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.