Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets
All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 7:11 PM
The model's call
New York Mets to win
Model confidence 56.6%
Books consensus 56.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +118 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +114 | -134 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 44.8% | 57.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Markets average | 44.5% | 55.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.