Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets
All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Wednesday, September 16, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 7-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | -110 | -108 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -119 |
| ESPN BET | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Orioles | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +143 | +1.5 -177 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -194 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +146 | +1.5 -178 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -185 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -125 | 9 +105 |
| BetRivers | 9 -118 | 9 -121 |
| DraftKings | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 +110 | 9.5 -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -135 |
| Caesars | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.0% | 51.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 48.0% | 52.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.