Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays

All Athletics predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions

MLB · Thursday, September 17, 2026 · 1:10 PM · Final: 1-10

The model's call
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Model confidence 70.1%
Books consensus 70.1%
Result Tampa Bay Rays won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsTampa Bay Rays
BetMGM +220 -275
BetRivers +210 -265
DraftKings +223 -279
ESPN BET +220 -270
Fanatics +220 -275
FanDuel +220 -270
Hard Rock Bet +225 -275
Caesars +225 -280

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rays −1.5
priced 52.2% to cover · 8 books
Tampa Bay Rays covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 51.1% over · 8 books
Over 7.5 (11 scored)
Spread by book AthleticsRays
BetMGM +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
BetRivers +1.5 -106 −1.5 -115
DraftKings +1.5 -102 −1.5 -119
ESPN BET +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Fanatics +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
FanDuel +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 +100 −1.5 -120
Caesars +1.5 -102 −1.5 -118
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
BetRivers 7.5 -109 7.5 -112
DraftKings 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
ESPN BET 7.5 -120 7.5 +100
Fanatics 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
FanDuel 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
Caesars 7.5 -114 7.5 -104

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsTampa Bay Rays
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 29.9% 70.1%
Best book price incl. vig 30.8% 72.6%
Kalshi contract price 28.5% 71.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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