Washington Nationals at Athletics
All Washington Nationals predictions · All Athletics predictions
MLB · Friday, July 17, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 23-4
The model's call
Washington Nationals to win
Model confidence 55.3%
Books consensus 55.3%
Result Washington Nationals won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +115 |
| BetRivers | -130 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| ESPN BET | -135 | +115 |
| Fanatics | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -136 | +116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Nationals −1.5
priced 43.9% to cover · 8 books
Washington Nationals covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 10.5
priced 47.4% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Over 10.5 (27 scored)
| Spread by book | Nationals | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +120 | +1.5 -145 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +114 | +1.5 -139 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +118 | +1.5 -143 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +120 | +1.5 -145 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -150 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +116 | +1.5 -138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -140 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +118 | +1.5 -140 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 10.5 -105 | 10.5 -125 |
| BetRivers | 10 -112 | 10 -108 |
| DraftKings | 10.5 -105 | 10.5 -115 |
| ESPN BET | 10.5 +105 | 10.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 10 -115 | 10 -105 |
| FanDuel | 10 -115 | 10 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 10.5 +105 | 10.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 10 -115 | 10 -105 |
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