Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Cleveland Guardians

All Athletics predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions

MLB · Friday, September 18, 2026 · 7:11 PM

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 63.2%
Books consensus 63.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book AthleticsCleveland Guardians
DraftKings +159 -193
ESPN BET +165 -195
Fanatics +160 -195
FanDuel +166 -198
Caesars +161 -193

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue AthleticsCleveland Guardians
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.8% 63.2%
Best book price incl. vig 37.6% 65.9%
Kalshi contract price 36.0% 64.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
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