Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Friday, September 18, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 3-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +102 | -121 |
| DraftKings | +105 | -127 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +106 | -124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +103 | -120 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +163 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -198 | −1.5 +163 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -215 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +169 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 8.5 -108 | 8.5 -113 |
| DraftKings | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 8.5 -114 | 8.5 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -115 | 8.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -108 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.5% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.