Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Friday, September 18, 2026 · 7:16 PM
The model's call
New York Mets to win
Model confidence 50.9%
Books consensus 50.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Fanatics | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Caesars | -103 | -114 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 50.7% | 52.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Markets average | 49.0% | 51.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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