Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:11 PM · Final: 3-10
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +108 | -129 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -125 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -190 | −1.5 +155 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +167 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +170 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +168 | +1.5 -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -118 | 8 -121 |
| DraftKings | 8 -113 | 8 -106 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +110 | 8.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -128 | 7.5 +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -129 | 7.5 +107 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.1% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.