Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
All Philadelphia Phillies predictions · All New York Mets predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 1:11 PM · Final: 7-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -175 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -160 | +132 |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -165 | +135 |
| Caesars | -159 | +135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Phillies | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -135 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -121 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -133 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +115 | +1.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -135 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +110 | +1.5 -132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -125 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +109 | +1.5 -127 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -104 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 -114 | 7.5 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -114 | 7.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 60.0% | 41.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Markets average | 59.0% | 41.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.