Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Athletics at Cleveland Guardians

All Athletics predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions

MLB · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 3:46 PM · Final: 0-1

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 69.1%
Books consensus 69.1%
Result Cleveland Guardians won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book AthleticsCleveland Guardians
BetMGM +200 -250
BetRivers +210 -265
DraftKings +213 -265
ESPN BET +213 -246
Fanatics +220 -275
FanDuel +200 -245
Hard Rock Bet +210 -260
Caesars +200 -265

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Guardians −1.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7
priced 50.4% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 7.5
Under 7 (1 scored)
Spread by book AthleticsGuardians
BetMGM +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
BetRivers +1.5 -107 −1.5 -114
DraftKings +1.5 -109 −1.5 -111
ESPN BET +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Fanatics +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -113 −1.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Caesars +1.5 -115 −1.5 -114
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7 +100 7 -120
BetRivers 7 -118 7 -121
DraftKings 7 -115 7 -105
ESPN BET 7.5 +120 7.5 -145
Fanatics 7 -115 7 -105
FanDuel 6.5 -142 6.5 +116
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +115 7.5 -135
Caesars 7.5 +111 7.5 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue AthleticsCleveland Guardians
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 30.9% 69.1%
Best book price incl. vig 31.2% 71.0%
Kalshi contract price 30.5% 69.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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