Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 1:39 PM · Final: 1-5
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +125 | -155 |
| BetRivers | +123 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +127 | -153 |
| ESPN BET | +126 | -142 |
| Fanatics | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -150 |
| Caesars | +128 | -150 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Red Sox | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -173 | −1.5 +143 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +145 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -176 | −1.5 +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -173 | −1.5 +146 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -106 |
| DraftKings | 7.5 -109 | 7.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -112 | 7.5 -108 |
| Fanatics | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | 7.5 +100 | 7.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 7.5 -103 | 7.5 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 43.9% | 58.7% |
| Kalshi contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Markets average | 41.5% | 58.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.