Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions
MLB · Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · 6:46 PM · Final: 3-2
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +108 | -127 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Guardians | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +185 | +1.5 -235 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -224 | −1.5 +183 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +170 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -235 | −1.5 +185 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +176 | +1.5 -215 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -210 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -213 | −1.5 +181 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6 -120 | 6 +100 |
| BetRivers | 6 -130 | 6 -110 |
| DraftKings | 6 -115 | 6 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 6 -115 | 6 -105 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 +104 | 6.5 -128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 6 -115 | 6 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 47.6% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.