Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox
All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions
MLB · Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 6:46 PM · Final: 1-0
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +114 | -136 |
| DraftKings | +107 | -129 |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +112 | -132 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Guardians | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +165 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +165 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -208 | −1.5 +170 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +170 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +165 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -196 | −1.5 +162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +168 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -122 | 6.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -122 | 6.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -113 | 6.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 46.7% | 56.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.3% | 53.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.