Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Houston Astros at Athletics

All Houston Astros predictions · All Athletics predictions

MLB · Thursday, September 24, 2026 · 9:41 PM

The model's call
Houston Astros to win
Model confidence 61.6%
Books consensus 61.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Houston AstrosAthletics
BetMGM -185 +150
BetRivers -167 +138
DraftKings -184 +151
ESPN BET -175 +150
Fanatics -180 +150
FanDuel -178 +150
Hard Rock Bet -180 +150
Caesars -176 +148

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Houston AstrosAthletics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 61.6% 38.4%
Best book price incl. vig 62.5% 39.8%
Kalshi contract price 62.5% 37.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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