Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies
All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Friday, September 25, 2026 · 6:41 PM · Final: 2-0
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| BetRivers | +145 | -177 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| ESPN BET | +150 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +148 | -173 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -150 | −1.5 +125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -139 | −1.5 +115 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -162 | −1.5 +134 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -165 | −1.5 +135 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -160 | −1.5 +135 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -162 | −1.5 +137 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -118 | 6.5 -104 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -114 | 6.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -118 | 6.5 -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -117 | 6.5 -102 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Tampa Bay Rays | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 40.0% | 63.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Markets average | 38.5% | 61.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.