Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox
All Chicago Cubs predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions
MLB · Friday, September 25, 2026 · 1:06 PM · Final: 3-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Chicago Cubs | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -124 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -123 | +102 |
| ESPN BET | -125 | +105 |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -120 | +102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -125 | +108 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Cubs | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -170 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -175 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +141 | +1.5 -171 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +142 | +1.5 -172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -170 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -164 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -117 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -109 | 6.5 -108 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Chicago Cubs | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 54.5% | 48.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Markets average | 52.5% | 47.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.