Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
All Baltimore Orioles predictions · All New York Yankees predictions
MLB · Friday, September 25, 2026 · 7:31 PM · Final: 3-6
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -106 | -113 |
| DraftKings | -113 | -107 |
| ESPN BET | -110 | -110 |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Orioles | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -185 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -205 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +151 | +1.5 -183 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -215 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -200 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -194 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +164 | +1.5 -197 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -117 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -119 | 6.5 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -113 | 6.5 -106 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 51.2% | 51.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 99.7% | 0.4% |
| Markets average | 75.4% | 24.7% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.