Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies
All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 7:51 PM · Final: 12-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +106 | -127 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +102 | -120 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -210 | −1.5 +170 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +165 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -218 | −1.5 +178 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +175 | +1.5 -225 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -225 | −1.5 +180 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -215 | −1.5 +176 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -200 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -220 | −1.5 +180 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 +105 |
| BetRivers | 7 -109 | 7 -130 |
| DraftKings | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +110 |
| Fanatics | 7 +100 | 7 -120 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -132 | 6.5 +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -130 | 6.5 +111 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Tampa Bay Rays | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.5% | 54.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.2% | 52.8% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.