Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies
All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 2:31 PM · Final: 3-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +150 | -182 |
| DraftKings | +169 | -207 |
| ESPN BET | +165 | -195 |
| Fanatics | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +168 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +165 | -200 |
| Caesars | +167 | -197 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -140 | −1.5 +115 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -141 | −1.5 +115 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -136 | −1.5 +113 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -140 | −1.5 +115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -142 | −1.5 +118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -145 | −1.5 +120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -143 | −1.5 +122 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -115 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -107 | 6.5 -114 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -104 | 6.5 -115 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -108 | 6.5 -109 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Tampa Bay Rays | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 36.0% | 64.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 37.0% | 64.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Markets average | 36.0% | 64.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.