Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Boston Red Sox predictions
MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 5:11 PM · Final: 6-7
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | -105 | -115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Rays | Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -180 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 51.2% | 53.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 49.5% | 51.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Markets average | 49.0% | 51.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.