Washington Nationals at Athletics
All Washington Nationals predictions · All Athletics predictions
MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 10:06 PM · Final: 1-15
The model's call
Washington Nationals to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result Athletics won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Washington Nationals | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | -115 | -105 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Nationals −1.5
priced 40.1% to cover · 1 book
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 11.5
priced 46.8% over · 1 book
Over 11.5 (16 scored)
| Spread by book | Nationals | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BET | 11.5 +105 | 11.5 -125 |
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