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Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians

MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 1:11 PM

The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 53.4%
Books consensus 53.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Pittsburgh PiratesCleveland Guardians
BetMGM +105 -130
BetRivers +107 -125
DraftKings +104 -126
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +108 -126
Hard Rock Bet +105 -125
Caesars +105 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Pittsburgh PiratesCleveland Guardians
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 46.6% 53.4%
Best book price incl. vig 47.6% 55.6%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 50.5%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 48.0% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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