Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Guardians

MLB · Saturday, July 18, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call

Pittsburgh Pirates to win

Model confidence 50.1%

Books consensus 50.1%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Pittsburgh Pirates	Cleveland Guardians
BetMGM	-110	-110
BetRivers	-114	-105
DraftKings	-110	-109
ESPN BET	-115	-105
Fanatics	-120	+100
FanDuel	-108	-108
Caesars	-110	-110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Pittsburgh Pirates	Cleveland Guardians
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	50.1%	49.9%
Best book price incl. vig	51.9%	50.0%
Kalshi contract price	48.5%	50.5%
Polymarket contract price	47.5%	52.5%
Markets average	48.0%	51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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