Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
All Tampa Bay Rays predictions · All Cleveland Guardians predictions
MLB · Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 8:00 PM · Final: 7-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| BetRivers | -112 | -107 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -103 |
| ESPN BET | -105 | -105 |
| Fanatics | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -110 | -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -105 |
| Novig | -104 | +102 |
| Caesars | -118 | +100 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Rays | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -200 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +159 | +1.5 -193 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -190 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +155 | +1.5 -190 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +158 | +1.5 -192 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -185 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +159 | +1.5 -190 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 6.5 -112 | 6.5 -109 |
| DraftKings | 6.5 -117 | 6.5 -103 |
| ESPN BET | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 6.5 -114 | 6.5 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -107 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 51.0% | 49.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Markets average | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.