Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 7:06 PM

The model's call

New York Yankees to win

Model confidence 52.1%

Books consensus 52.1%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Pittsburgh Pirates	New York Yankees
BetMGM	-105	-115
BetRivers	+100	-118
DraftKings	-103	-117
ESPN BET	+100	-120
Fanatics	-105	-115
FanDuel	+102	-120
Hard Rock Bet	+100	-120
Caesars	+100	-120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Pittsburgh Pirates	New York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	47.9%	52.1%
Best book price incl. vig	49.5%	53.5%
Kalshi contract price	48.5%	51.5%
Polymarket contract price	47.5%	52.5%
Markets average	48.0%	52.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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