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Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 7:11 PM

The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 57.1%
Books consensus 57.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +112 -136
DraftKings +123 -149
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +120 -142
Hard Rock Bet +125 -145
Caesars +122 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Baltimore OriolesBoston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.9% 57.1%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 57.6%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Polymarket contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Markets average 42.5% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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