Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 5-6
The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 59.9%
Books consensus 59.9%
Result Boston Red Sox won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 39.5% | 59.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 40.5% | 59.5% |
| Markets average | 40.0% | 59.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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