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Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners

MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 9:41 PM

The model's call
Seattle Mariners to win
Model confidence 56.6%
Books consensus 56.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Cincinnati RedsSeattle Mariners
BetMGM +120 -145
BetRivers +120 -141
DraftKings +119 -144
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +124 -146
Hard Rock Bet +125 -145
Caesars +118 -140

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Cincinnati RedsSeattle Mariners
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.4% 56.6%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 58.3%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Polymarket contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Markets average 42.5% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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