Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · 1:06 PM

The model's call

New York Yankees to win

Model confidence 59.5%

Books consensus 59.5%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Pittsburgh Pirates	New York Yankees
BetMGM	+135	-165
DraftKings	+136	-164
ESPN BET	+140	-165
Fanatics	+140	-170
FanDuel	+138	-164
Caesars	+135	-160

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Pittsburgh Pirates	New York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	40.5%	59.5%
Best book price incl. vig	41.7%	61.5%
Kalshi contract price	41.0%	59.0%
Polymarket contract price	42.5%	57.5%
Markets average	41.7%	58.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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