Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

MLB · Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · 1:36 PM

The model's call

Boston Red Sox to win

Model confidence 56.4%

Books consensus 56.4%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Baltimore Orioles	Boston Red Sox
BetMGM	+125	-150
BetRivers	+114	-136
ESPN BET	+120	-140
FanDuel	+120	-142
Caesars	+122	-145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Baltimore Orioles	Boston Red Sox
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	43.6%	56.4%
Best book price incl. vig	44.4%	57.6%
Kalshi contract price	42.5%	56.5%
Polymarket contract price	42.5%	57.5%
Markets average	42.5%	57.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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