Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, July 22, 2026 · 7:05 PM

The model's call

New York Yankees to win

Model confidence 61.6%

Books consensus 61.6%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Pittsburgh Pirates	New York Yankees
DraftKings	+149	-181
ESPN BET	+130	-150
Caesars	+150	-178

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Pittsburgh Pirates	New York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	38.4%	61.6%
Best book price incl. vig	40.0%	60.0%
Kalshi contract price	41.0%	59.0%
Polymarket contract price	42.5%	57.5%
Markets average	41.7%	58.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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