Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB · Friday, July 24, 2026 · 6:41 PM

The model's call

Pittsburgh Pirates to win

Model confidence 53.2%

Books consensus 53.2%

Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book	Chicago Cubs	Pittsburgh Pirates
BetMGM	+105	-130
DraftKings	+104	-125
Fanatics	+105	-125
FanDuel	+104	-122
Caesars	+105	-125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue	Chicago Cubs	Pittsburgh Pirates
Books consensus fair, de-vigged	46.8%	53.2%
Best book price incl. vig	48.8%	55.0%
Kalshi contract price	48.5%	51.5%
Polymarket contract price	47.5%	52.5%
Markets average	48.0%	52.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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