New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies
All New York Yankees predictions · All Philadelphia Phillies predictions
MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 6:06 PM · Final: 3-1
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | New York Yankees | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -121 | +106 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +104 |
| ESPN BET | -125 | +105 |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -126 | +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Yankees | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -155 |
| BetRivers | −1 +100 | +1 -122 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -157 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +122 | +1.5 -146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -165 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -155 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -115 | 9 -105 |
| BetRivers | 9 +100 | 9 -120 |
| DraftKings | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| FanDuel | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 +115 | 9.5 -135 |
| Caesars | 9 -120 | 9 +100 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | New York Yankees | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 53.5% | 48.1% |
| Kalshi contract price | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Markets average | 53.5% | 46.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.