Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
All Cleveland Guardians predictions · All Tampa Bay Rays predictions
MLB · Saturday, July 25, 2026 · 6:11 PM · Final: 0-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | -103 | -112 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -114 |
| ESPN BET | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Guardians | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +170 | +1.5 -220 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +162 | +1.5 -197 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +165 | +1.5 -200 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -200 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +160 | +1.5 -194 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -200 | −1.5 +170 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -205 | −1.5 +170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| BetRivers | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
| DraftKings | 8 -108 | 8 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -106 | 8 -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 +110 | 8.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 8 -105 | 8 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 48.4% | 51.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 48.8% | 52.8% |
| Kalshi contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Markets average | 47.5% | 52.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.