Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
All Chicago Cubs predictions · All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions
MLB · Sunday, July 26, 2026 · 1:36 PM · Final: 7-8
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +118 | -140 |
| BetRivers | +110 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -144 |
| ESPN BET | +120 | -140 |
| Fanatics | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Cubs | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| BetRivers | +1 -137 | −1 +114 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -175 | −1.5 +144 |
| ESPN BET | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +150 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -180 | −1.5 +145 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +140 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -170 | −1.5 +143 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
| BetRivers | 9 -104 | 9 -115 |
| DraftKings | 9 -108 | 9 -112 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 -135 | 8.5 +115 |
| Fanatics | 9 -105 | 9 -115 |
| FanDuel | 9 -106 | 9 -114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 8.5 -130 | 8.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 9 -110 | 9 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.0% | 55.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.5% | 55.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Markets average | 45.5% | 55.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.