Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 0-2
The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 56.6%
Books consensus 56.6%
Result Cincinnati Reds won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -145 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -139 | +123 |
| DraftKings | -145 | +120 |
| ESPN BET | -145 | +125 |
| Fanatics | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -142 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -145 | +120 |
| Caesars | -150 | +126 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 58.2% | 44.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 57.5% | 43.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Markets average | 57.5% | 43.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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