Boston Red Sox at Athletics
All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Athletics predictions
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 3-4
The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 58.1%
Books consensus 58.1%
Result Athletics won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Boston Red Sox | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -139 | +123 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| ESPN BET | -150 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -146 | +124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -155 | +130 |
| Caesars | -160 | +135 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Red Sox −1.5
priced 47.8% to cover · 8 books
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 10
priced 51.7% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Under 10 (7 scored)
| Spread by book | Red Sox | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +106 | +1.5 -129 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +105 | +1.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +102 | +1.5 -122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +100 | +1.5 -120 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 10 -118 | 10 -102 |
| BetRivers | 10 -113 | 10 -107 |
| DraftKings | 10 -118 | 10 -102 |
| ESPN BET | 10.5 +100 | 10.5 -120 |
| Fanatics | 10.5 -105 | 10.5 -115 |
| FanDuel | 10 -115 | 10 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 10.5 -105 | 10.5 -115 |
| Caesars | 10 -120 | 10 +100 |
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