Baltimore Orioles at Cincinnati Reds
MLB · Saturday, July 4, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 8-5
The model's call
Cincinnati Reds to win
Model confidence 53.7%
Books consensus 53.7%
Result Baltimore Orioles won
model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Baltimore Orioles | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +105 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +102 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +108 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |
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