MONDAY, JULY 27, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
MLB · Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · 1:41 PM
The model's call
Cincinnati Reds to win
Model confidence 59.1%
Books consensus 59.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +139 | -168 |
| ESPN BET | +135 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 41.7% | 59.3% |
| Kalshi contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Markets average | 53.0% | 47.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.