TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds
MLB · Wednesday, July 29, 2026 · 7:11 PM
The model's call
Cleveland Guardians to win
Model confidence 55.0%
Books consensus 55.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Cleveland Guardians | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -135 | +110 |
| ESPN BET | -135 | +115 |
| Fanatics | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -132 | +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Cleveland Guardians | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 56.5% | 46.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 54.5% | 46.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Markets average | 55.0% | 45.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.