WEDNESDAY, JULY 29, 2026
The Daily Graded Board
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 7:11 PM
The model's call
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -118 | -102 |
| ESPN BET | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 52.8% | 50.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Markets average | 51.5% | 48.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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