Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
All Pittsburgh Pirates predictions · All Cincinnati Reds predictions
MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 2-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -115 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -123 | +102 |
| ESPN BET | -115 | -105 |
| Fanatics | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Pirates | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +132 | +1.5 -162 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -157 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +125 | +1.5 -150 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -160 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +128 | +1.5 -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +130 | +1.5 -155 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -160 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| BetRivers | 9.5 -114 | 9.5 -106 |
| DraftKings | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| ESPN BET | 9.5 -110 | 9.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| FanDuel | 9.5 -114 | 9.5 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
| Caesars | 9.5 -115 | 9.5 -105 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 52.2% | 47.8% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 53.5% | 48.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Markets average | 52.5% | 47.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.