Boston Red Sox at Athletics
All Boston Red Sox predictions · All Athletics predictions
MLB · Thursday, July 30, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 5-4
The model's call
Boston Red Sox to win
Model confidence 63.0%
Books consensus 63.0%
Result Boston Red Sox won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus
of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself
in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not
an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Boston Red Sox | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -190 | +155 |
| BetRivers | -190 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -191 | +157 |
| ESPN BET | -190 | +160 |
| Fanatics | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -190 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -195 | +160 |
| Caesars | -195 | +162 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
Spread · closing
Red Sox −1.5
priced 52.7% to cover · 8 books
Athletics covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 10
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 10 (9 scored)
| Spread by book | Red Sox | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 -130 | +1.5 +105 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 -120 | +1.5 +100 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 -126 | +1.5 +105 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 -125 | +1.5 +105 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 -120 | +1.5 +100 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 -120 | +1.5 +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 -120 | +1.5 +100 |
| Caesars | −1.5 -125 | +1.5 +105 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 10 -110 | 10 -110 |
| BetRivers | 10 -117 | 10 -103 |
| DraftKings | 10 -110 | 10 -110 |
| ESPN BET | 10.5 +105 | 10.5 -125 |
| Fanatics | 10 -110 | 10 -110 |
| FanDuel | 10 -112 | 10 -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 10.5 +105 | 10.5 -125 |
| Caesars | 10 -105 | 10 -115 |
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